Is a Korean Summit Possible?

Katsumi Sato

(2005.2.4) 

According to intelligence sources in South Korea , President Roh Moo-hyun discussed the possibility of a summit between North and South Korea during a bilateral meeting with US President George W. Bush on November 20, 2004, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Chile . Roh reportedly told Bush that a North-South summit could be made a reality by February 2005 and stated his desire that the United States not make any moves with regard to North Korea before then. Bush reportedly agreed but also stated that the United States would be free to act after February.

Underscoring this conversation is the fact that the possibility of a North-South summit has dominated the news in South Korea since the end of the year. In the round-table discussion carried in the March issue of Modern Korea , a meeting of the leaders of North and South Korea was the primary focus of attention. The panel reached the conclusion that a summit is highly likely. This was based on the fact that the Bush administration has shown absolutely no intention of compromising on North Korea 's nuclear program. What this means is that the United States will use the United Nations and the Proliferation Security Initiative to impose economic sanctions and take other steps to prevent North Korea from engaging in such actions as exporting missiles, pressing the Kim Jong-il regime to relinquish its weapons of mass destruction. This can be expected to throw the government of North Korea into chaos or even lead to its collapse. The governments of both Kim Jong-il and Roh Moo-hyun share a desire to avoid such an eventuality.

 
As a means of evading the pressure that the Bush administration is expected to bring to bear, the summit would seek to sign paper agreements on such matters as "mutual assistance among Koreans," "independent and peaceful reunification," and a "federal system." (Whether such agreements can be put into practice is a separate issue.) By sending a message to the world that US involvement in the "internal problems of the Korean people" is unwanted, the summit would be intended to hold the Bush administration in check and allow the two governments to stay in power. This is why the possibility of a summit taking place is high.

The Roh administration in Seoul has seen its public-approval ratings drop due to the failure of its economic policies and other factors, and with the situation as it is now, the ruling party stands no chance of winning the upcoming by-elections scheduled for April. If it goes down in defeat, it will lose its parliamentary majority and be thrown into chaos. In addition, if a summit fails to take place, Roh will likely be abandoned by the left-leaning forces that comprise his administration's base. These factors make the realization of a summit a matter of the utmost importance for his administration.

 
Meanwhile, it has been revealed that the ashes that Pyongyang turned over to Japan with the assurance that they were the remains of abductee Megumi Yokota were not hers, thus quashing the wishful scenario of the abduction issue being brought to an end and North Korea receiving money from Japan . North Korea is on the verge of an explosion of its internal contradictions, including the chronic and intractable famine conditions there, splits of opinions within the leadership and defections and ousters of high-ranking officials, the declining influence of Kim Jong-il, and an unending flow of people fleeing the country.

 
Once President Bush consolidates his administration's new personnel lineup following his reelection, he will inevitably apply pressure on Kim. No matter how one looks at it, the reality on the Korean Peninsula is that the governments of North and South Korea are literally being pushed to the brink.

 
It has been reported that Kim's demands in return for a summit are $1 billion in compensation, the abolition of South Korea 's National Security Law, and the passage of revisions to three related bills. Neither government can afford to have its foundations weakened, however, so a compromise will be easily attainable.

 
If this comes to pass, I predict the following will take place with regard to Japan 's relations with North Korea . It would be wise to assume that Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi has been informed by both North and South Korea that a summit is close and has been requested not to impose economic sanctions on North Korea . It is believed that the situation on the peninsula is what lies behind Koizumi's hesitancy to impose sanctions.

 
When a summit was held between North and South Korea in June 2000, then Minister for Foreign Affairs Yohei Kono made a delusional remark to the effect that North-South reunification was going to take place in short order, saying, "Now more than ever, it is the time to send food aid." With that, Japan donated 500,000 tons of rice to a terrorist state.
Some three-and-a-half years have since passed, and it is worth examining what has come of the reunification and abduction issues. On the matter of the abductions, Koizumi essentially paid Kim Jong-il \5.2 billion and received only fake remains in return. No matter what else our country does, it will not do to repeat the crime of providing rice to a terrorist regime that has kidnapped Japanese citizens and is continuing to develop its nuclear program.

(Translated by Japan Echo Inc.)